2001/03/06
"They know they cannot afford to miss this product ramp and they know they have to spend their money on DDR," McComas said. "They can't afford to miss the first six months of this cycle."
With the DRAM industry possibly posed for even more consolidation, Nanya is pressing ahead, Hurley said. This past January, the company extended its technology pact with IBM Corp. and is still on schedule to launch IBM's 0.14-micron process in early 2003. Its 200-mm fab in Taiwan also remains on schedule, and will ramp from its present output of 18,000 to 20,000 wafers per month to its full-capacity of 25,000 wafers per month later this year, moving from 128-Mbit to 256-Mbit density devices, he said.
But the company may push out its 300-mm (12-inch) fab if DRAM prices do not recover over the second half of the year. Analysts, industry and Nanya management believe prices will recover, but the critical period for Nanya will be in the third quarter of this year, said Hurley.
"We will put the shell in under the assumption that there is recovery, but if we go into the third quarter with no signs of a recovery, then we will delay it. Q2 is typically when things begin to pick up a little bit. We still believe in a strengthening in the second half, but only time will tell," Hurley said.
Separately, Nanya plans to validate and ship its Pentium 4 DDR chip sets in the fourth quarter in line with competitors, Hurley said.